<<<<<<<<<<< [Posted chart shows the workforce participation rate taking a serious dump during the Obama years. Good luck with a liberal spin on this one].
"I know, this is a lot to try to sort through and my facts are not presented in a linear and easily understandable presentation. Sorry. In the end, just remember these facts: if we counted unemployment with the same procedural numbers as 5 years ago, the unemployment rate would be 10.8%; the active workforce is smaller than at anytime in the past 20 years allowing for the underground economy to be larger than it has ever been.
Conclusion: while the jobs market is improving, it is only marginally so. There is no chance that this growth is the result of an Obama strategy, in view of the fact that no such strategy exists !!"
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The Feds report an 8.3% unemployment rate while Gallup reports 9.1%.
Understand that the difference between Federal unemployment numbers and the Gallup number is the difference between a make-believe number called "seasonally adjusted" and Gallup's 30 day rolling average. Gallup's is a real number. The Fed's is not.
The "economy" added 227,000 jobs last month, something to be cheered if it were not for the fact that 40% of those jobs are temporary and part-time jobs.
The Question:
You will have to take my word for it as a long time observer, but I have found that, generally speaking, real job growth of 153,000 per month, takes the so-called "unemployment percentage" down a tenth of a percentage point. According to that demonstrable "theory" (mine), the unemployment rate should have moved down to 8.2 or even 8.1 percent. What happen? Why no movement? Problem, with the current Feruary report, the unemployment rate was not effected at all, yet, 227.000 jobs were added. So, again, what happened?
The Answer:
Well, either the Administration is waiting to add the downward "bump" to next months numbers, making it look as if the economy has shifted into high gear, or, the Administration is hedging its bet against a late spring "fall off" in the active labor force. Understand that 2010 and 2011 both had numbers very similar to this year's February report. Unfortunately, in '10 ans '11, the job market took a dump the late spring of each year. There is a third consideration. Reuters suggests that those who had given up on looking for work, have, once again, started actively searching and were added to the unemployment numbers, keeping that number static. Keep in mind that the Feds only count as "unemployed" those who are actively searching. When they quit looking, they are drop from the unemployment roles, driving down the unemployment number.
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| Current labor force participation rate held steady under Bush until the current recessionary trends began to be felt. When Obama took over America, percentage of the labor force working, was 65.7. It has fallen to 63.9 under our Imperialist Presidente' regime. |
Also, keep in mind that the actual number of workplace positions has fallen by more than 2 million than before the recession and the labor force is 5 million smaller than it was in 2005. We are at the lowest participation rate in two decades. Where are those people . . . . the 5 million? They are in the "underground" economy, living with family or friends, or are on the welfare dole (other than the unemployment benefit roster).
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Summary and Conclusion
Summary: I know, this is a lot to try to sort through and my facts are not presented in a linear and easily understandable presentation. Sorry. In the end, just remember these facts: if we counted unemployment with the same procedural numbers as 5 years ago, the unemployment rate would be 10.8%; the active workforce is smaller than at anytime in the past 20 years allowing for the underground economy to be larger than it has ever been. Conclusion: while the jobs market is improving, it is only marginally so. There is no chance that this growth is the result of an Obama strategy, in view of the fact that no such strategy exists !!
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