Unemployment down to 8.3% Really? Or is it 11.3%.

Developing; story not reviewed for grammar or spelling.  I just wanted it posted before leaving the office for a couple of hours.  The Administration is playing games.  What is the scope of that reality,  and what does it mean for the coming election cycle. 

Let me begin with a caveat,  rather than ending with one.  The economy is in "recovery."  I admit that.  Now, having said that,  what is the truth about the current report?

First,  we are in the re-election season and presidential Administrations do what they can to "cook the books" in an effort to make things appear better than they really are.  Clinton, as an example,  used to brag about "22 million jobs created."  Today,  we know that number was closer to 11 million (12 million of the '22' were 'Dot Com' jobs lost when the 'dot com' bubble burst.  Still,.   he was a good president when it came to the economy ( and, I am no fan of Bill );  he just wan't as good as he claims to be.

Anyway,  politicians play games with "the numbers."  It is almost expected,  but not to the degree that we see in the Obama Administration.  Since Obama has been president,  the private sector labor force has lost more than 5 million people.  Take a look at the first chart,  below.  It comes from the Department of Labor. From 2002 thru 2008,  the average rate of participation was 66.3%.  That means that of the total labor force available,  66.3% are actually (supposedly) available for work.

Last month,  Obama dropped 1.2 million from that collective, bring the total of available and active workers to 153 million citizens.  Under Bush,  that number was closer to 159 million.

Look at the first chart,  again.  Note the sharp decline in the labor force,  curing the Obama years and compare it to the rather straight line summary during the Bush years.  Obama is dropping people from the labor force like dead flies on meat.  The result?  Well,  it adds to the recovery picture.

Add to this fact the realization that this particular report covers both the Christmas hiring season and the beginning of the IRS build-up for the coming tax season.

You watch,  Obama will jump all over this number,  claiming success for his policies in spite of the fact that the Stimulus funds ran out a year and a half ago.  He will ride this report into late spring,  in the hopes that a honest recovery jumps into high gear.  If that does not happen,  the "numbers" will suddenly begin to look poorly for the Slickmeister.

There is much much talk about, here,  but I have time constraints,  this morning.  Consider this a developing story.  Back in the saddle after a visit to the local eye clinic.  - blog editor.








Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over

        
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnnual
200266.566.866.666.766.766.666.566.666.766.666.466.3 
200366.466.466.366.466.466.566.266.166.166.166.165.9 
200466.166.066.065.966.066.166.166.065.865.966.065.9 
200565.865.965.966.166.166.166.166.266.166.166.066.0 
200666.066.166.266.166.166.266.166.266.166.266.366.4 
200766.466.366.265.966.066.066.065.866.065.866.066.0 
200866.266.066.165.966.166.166.166.165.966.065.865.8 
200965.765.865.665.665.765.765.565.465.165.065.064.6 
201064.864.964.965.164.964.664.664.764.664.464.564.3 
201164.264.264.264.264.264.164.064.164.164.164.064.0 
201263.7            



End notes being reviewed for this developing story:  


Source for the charts above:  Bureau of Labor


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/04/business/economy/us-economy-added-243000-jobs-in-january-unemployment-rate-is-8-3.html?_r=1    Net jobs increase for December was 203,000


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-12-million-people-fall-out-labor-force-one-month-labor-force-participation-rate-tumbles-


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/implied-unemployment-rate-rises-115-spread-propaganda-number-surges-30-year-high


http://www.cnbc.com/id/46250775







2 comments:

  1. Of course you don't want to admit unemployment is at a 3 yr low. You want America to fail, to continue to suffer. It says a lot about your lack of patriotism.

    Bush had the worst job creation record of any modern president - WSJ

    No one wants to go back to the policies that put us in this mess.

    Only one U.S. president since World War II -- Ronald Reagan -- has been re-elected with a jobless rate above 6 percent. Reagan won a second term with 7.2 percent unemployment.

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  2. The WSJ reports: The Corporate Tax Rate is lowest level since at least 1972. Today - the Dow Jones finished at a 4 yr high, the NASDAQ finished at an 11 yr high, and unemployment is lowest in 3 yrs. You'll still hear conservatives telling us Obama is ruining the economy.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204662204577199492233215330.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

    ReplyDelete