New benefit requests rise to 381,000. What does it mean, if anything?

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose last week for the first time in a month. But a measure of applications over the past month fell to a three-and-a-half-year low, an indication that hiring could pick up.

The Labor Department says weekly applications rose 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 381,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell for the fourth straight week to 375,000 — the lowest level since June 2008.

Applications generally must fall below 375,000 — consistently — to signal that hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate.

Unemployment benefit applications are a measure of the pace of layoffs. Applications have plummeted in the past month, indicating that job cuts have fallen sharply. Still, many companies have been slow to boost hiring. . . .  .  (note that the 381,000 is 15,000 higher than the unadjusted 366,000 of the prior week  --  so where is the revision for that week?  The is ALWAYS such a revision  -- blog editor)

There is so much misinformation embedded in this article as to be startling,  but the single most important misstatement is the one that reads,  “Unemployment benefit applications are a measure of the pace of layoffs. Applications have plummeted in the past month, indicating that job cuts have fallen sharply. Still, many companies have been slow to boost hiring.”

The fact of the matter is quite different.  This weekly report is a measure of the number of people making first time application for unemployment benefits and nothing more.  It does not mean that employers are hiring.  It does not mean that more Americans are working.  It does not mean that “job cuts have fallen sharply” in the sense that is good news.  It only applies to people qualified for unemployment benefits for the prior week.  If folks have quit looking for work,  they are not counted in this number. 

Since 2004,  the national workforce has fallen from 138 million to 126 million in 2010,  according to Department of Labor stats. What happened to them?  They quit working !!!!  or,  have moved into the “underground” work force.  My gardener is one of these underground rebels.  Good for him.     And, in the three years since Obama took office,  the nation has lost 2 million job positions.  In other words,  there are 2 million few jobs to be found,  than existed four years ago. 

The only number that means anything in a definitive sense,  as to the issue of employment,  is the one that compares the size of the national workforce against the number of folks working full time and,  again, part-time (20 hours per week or more).  Understand that the government will count as “part-time”  those who have worked as little as one hour for the month.  Nonsense. 

Anyway,  this blog has, as a major theme,  this very issue.  In addition to our weekly reporting,  we have a page dedicated to Department of Labor statistics. 

Understand that,  during the election season,  Labor stats are always manipulated,  whether by the Dems or the GOP  --  whoever happens to be in power, at the time.  This campaign cycle,  it is about the Democrats.  Expect to see lies and damn lies flowing like water from the pundits playing “the numbers game.”  It started two weeks ago.