We have early voting numbers for 17 states.

ARIZONA

Republicans lead 44 to 34 percent in early votes tracked by the Atlas Project. If a true depiction of voting trends, GOP vote totals may run 7% higher than in 2008 while Democrats seem to be the same; 2008 voter registration was 37% (R) 34% (D)

CALIFORNIA

More than a million ballots have been cast in California, with a surprisingly close vote total, 43 percent fpr the Dems and 39 percent for the Republicans. For every 22 registered Democrats in the state, there are 15 Republicans. If turnout is heavy for the GOP, they could pull off an upset or two, especially as concerns the Boxer/Fiorina Senate race. Understand that the "other" voter is the critical concern in this election if the GOP is to be successful in the state.

COLORADO

Out of the nearly 200,000 votes recorded so far, Republicans lead 42 percent 37 percent, as of Thursday. This is in a state where the demographic is equal across the board: 2008 voter registration was 33% (R) 33% (D) 34% ( I )

FLORIDA

Republicans so far dominate early voting this year, 53 percent to 34 percent, but most of the nearly 840,000 votes cast have been by mail. 2008 voter registration was 42% (D) 36% (R) 22% ( I ). Of course, if this voter ratio remains constant, the senior citizenry of this state about to give the Dems a sound beating for their misdeeds. Unfortunately, early results are not much a marker as to the end result of an election.

GEORGIA

There is no registration by party in Georgia, but based on voter identification tracking, the GOP says it has the lead in absentee ballots returned, with 58 percent to 26 percent for Democratic-leaning voters.

IOWA (a very important state in terms of national election hopes.)

Democrats lead turnout, 46 percent to 38 percent, with almost 200,000 votes cast, according to official figures.
2008 voter registration was 34% (D) 29% (R) 37% ( Independent)

LOUISIANA

Democrats lead turnout with nearly 50,000 votes in the bag, 47 percent to 43 percent. But early turnout made up only 15 percent of the vote in 2008. Understand that in '08, Democrats had a 2-1 overall voter registration advantage. John McCain still won by 59 percent.

MAINE

47,500 votes have been cast at this writing with the totals for each party split "down the middle."

MICHIGAN

There is no party registration in this state. We will just have to wait for an official count. Both sides are claiming the lead in early voting.

NEVADA

Republicans are claiming a slight lead in spite of a 47 to 32 Dem to GOP registration ratio. The Senate race promises to be one that may be extremely close (Angle vs Reid).

NEW JERSEY

Democrats: 43 percent; Republicans: 28 percent of the 66,000 early and absentee votes tracked by Atlas. 90% of the state does not vote early.

NEW MEXICO

Republicans have a 47 percent to 44 percent lead among the 75,000 early ballots cast so far, according to data gathered by the Atlas Project. More than 60 percent of votes were cast early in 2008. In '06 and '08, this was a Democrat state by a 50 to 32 percent margin, but Obama is very unpopular in the state, in this election cycle.

NORTH CAROLINA

Democrats lead 44 percent to 38 percent with more than 220,000 votes recorded. In '06 and '08, Democrats lead Republicans 46 to 34 percent, on average. Early turnout is down compared to previous elections.

OHIO

Early vote totals seem to favor the Democrats. There is no party registration in this state. We will wait on this one, as well. .

OREGON

Democrats have an edge, 44 percent to 38 percent, among the more than 100,000 votes cast. Typically, registration is 39 to 36 percent in favor of the Democrats with '08 being an exception. There are no voter polls in this state. The vote is done entirely by mail-in.

PENNSYLVANIA

Only 5% of the states vote is mail-in. The GOP is leading in this count by nearly 20 points BUT the over-all mail-in total is insignificant to the actual vote count. We will have to wait on this state, as well. Of course, nothing is final until election night and the day following . . . . nothing.

WASHINGTON

Early voting is split between the two parties. Understand that this state does not register by party and all voting is done by mail.

WEST VIRGINIA

Early voting could constitute a quarter of the total vote. It does not appear that early voting will tell us much. Typical voter registration is 56% (D) 29% (R) with only 15% being "independent;" first reports have the vote totals similar to the typical averages.

WISCONSIN

Democrats lead almost 2 to 1 in early voting according to the Atlas data. Early voting is a marginal concern, however.

Source: The Atlas Project
888 16th Street NW, Suite 333
Washington, DC 20006