In the last few days, Gallup took survey of the midterm elections to be held 28 days from today - four weeks from now. Their survey included two different avenues for consideration.
The first is the "generic ballot" with a no-name Republican pitted against a no-name Democrat. Typically, that contest goes to the Democrat. This election cycle is very different, however. The separation between the two, on the generic ballot, is 4 points or 46% to 42% in favor of the GOP. That does not sound like much but it is the largest separation for the GOP since Gallup began taking this survey back in 1942. PEW Research tells us that the "generic ballot" is an extremely consistent predictor of national scale elections. You can read their work on the generic ballot here. The result of Gallup's generic ballot work is to predict a victory for the GOP similar to 1994.
The second survey path is one that measures two results; one with high voter turnout and a second with lower voter turnout. With the “high turnout model” in mind, Republicans lead 53%-40%. With the “low turnout model” ,Republicans lead 56%-38%. Gallup's high turnout and low turnout model numbers suggest that we may be looking at election results more like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats. Today's House has 435 districts representative.
If you do not follow politics closely, you would not know that Dick Morris, a converted liberal and Bill Clinton's campaign manager, has been predicting a 100 seat GOP victory in the House for a couple of months. Until today, he was the only one making that prediction. Incontrast, most are hoping for a 35 to 45 seat gain.
Gallup allows for Morris' prediction to sound a bit more reasonable. More than Gallup and Dick Morris, we have the very well known Democrat analyst standing in agreement. In fact, he is the source for the facts of the Gallup application. You can read the article here. Time will tell.
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