RealClearPolitics runs an average of all the major polling firms with regard to Obama. Gallup, Rasmussen, Marist, PPP are a few of the polls effecting the RCP Averages. In this past week, this RCP Average hit a new and record low for the Novice in our White House. Understand that "averages" can be very deceiving and, often, do not give us a view of reality, for that reason.
Here is a an example. Take six regions in our country, each with a temperature averaging a very normal 75 degrees. If we ran an average combining the six regions, "75" would be the prevailing number, of course. If we were to add a seventh district with an average of 82 degrees and rolled that into the number for the remaining 6 regions, we would have an increased average of 76 degrees. We might, then, conclude that global warming is occurring when, in fact, only one region out of seven is experiencing an "over heated" atmosphere. We can do the same sort of thing with political averages.
On a different level, "averages" can be inappropriate as a predictive device. Take the Angle/Reid race in Nevada. The two contestants have been in a virtual polling tie for nearly two months. No one is trying to figure out how many of each party will actually vote, however. This midterm will be decided by turnout, not on the basis of ideological bias. In that reality, there is room for any particular election day conclusion. It is because of this consideration that we argue against the "appropriateness" of polling as THE predictor of election politics.
A third consideration, when it comes to polling, is the irresistible fact that polls are often used (read: misused) by a particular entity. Anytime we (Midknight Review) sees a poll with a major media attachment, we disregard the poll, altogether. Examples of this would be "CNN/Gallup" or "Marist/NBC" or "PPP/NY TY Times".
We should NEVER forget the recent "Journalolist" scandal that exposed the collusion of more than 400 journalist and academics in an email conspiracy to influence the '08 election with propaganda, made-up or otherwise. We reported on this last August 13 here. Understand that the Journalolist Conspiracy DID NOT disappear. It is as strong a collusionary influence as ever. During the remaining 38 days until the election, we expect to see the Times, evening network news, and the far Left blogosphere using "polling" information to influence the midterms. This is the reason why liberal media themes appear every 7 to 14 days. One week, every liberal outlet is talking about O'Donnell's witchcraft and the following week, they are talking about her tax problems. Conversely, one week, no one is talking about Coon's Marxist ties and the next week, no one is talking his alliance with those who would benefit from "cap and trade" legislation" -- each example being a demonstration of liberal media collusion, as well, a collusion of silence.
Point of post: to review the negatives of depending on polling results. In the end, we must stand on our principles and campaign as if the people we serve agree with our opinion. In the end, they will make their wishes known via the only poll that really matters - the "next election."
No comments:
Post a Comment