Editor's notes: Midknight Review simply does not believe in the accuracy of this poll. PPP does not take into consideration factors in addition to their polling information. First, Obama has far far more exposure than any of his potential candidates, driving his numbers "up" when, in fact, his approval is not as high as the numbers seem to suggest. He makes two to four appearances each and every day. He spends almost no time behind the desk in the oval office, preferring the campaign trail to dealing with foreign policy issues, domestic job policies, bi-partisan problem solving, and the Gulf Oil Crisis. Again, if he were notably less visible, his numbers would be lower than than are now !!
People are beginning to note his propensity for having fun. He has been on the golf course 9 times since the April 20 deepwater Horizon explosion but has not the time to meet with the Arizona Governor in a serious way or schedule meetings with BP in an effort to get a handle on that crisis. We were told, today, that he will be meeting with BP on June 15 -- after two months . . . . too little too late. He has the Minion Media scared to death of him. As a result, they air everything he does costing them millions in advertising revenues. He has the poorest approval numbers for the longest period of time at the earliest stage of his presidency than any other president since WW II -- maybe in American history, and that includes Jimmy Carter. It is believed that all this will come back to haunt him in 2012 -- factors not considered in polling results such as is found with the recent PPP numbers.
Understand that John McCain was an extremely unpopular "conservative" candidate. If Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani had been the GOP offering, Midknight Review believes Obama would not have won the election. Let's not forget that Obama spent $800 million dollars (to McCain's $330 million) to win the election by just 7% of the vote. It is estimated that some 5 to 7 million conservatives did not go to the polls in 2008. They will be back in 2012. Obama has lost 3.5 million white male votes over the course of the past 16 months and these will be swing votes for the most part (which is a 7 million swing count). He has lost nearly one million of the Jewish vote. These will not swing to the other side. They hate the Christian right and will never vote "conservative" in spite of the fact that they are quite conservative in a practical sense. He has lost nearly 15% of the Mexican vote and many of these will swing to the other side. The hard left is very upset with him as well. He has violated almost all of his "war and peace" promises. There are several million in this camp. Again, they will not swing, but they just might stay home in 2012. After all, what on earth can he say, come election time, that anyone will believe. If the election for president were held today, Obama would lose by ten to twelve million votes.
Obama up in 2012 contests according to PPP
Polling close to Obama are Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. The President leads Huckabee 46-44 and Romney 45-42. They both do a good job of consolidating the GOP vote and holding a solid advantage with independents.
Doing less well are Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, and Ron Paul. Obama has a 47-39 advantage over Gingrich, a 50-41 against Palin, and 46-36 edge matched against Paul. read the full report at Public Policy Polling.
keys: public policy polling, 2012, minion media
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