Will Census Information change the 2012 the Electoral College demographics in favor of Obama? Not really.

Midknight Review has heard and read of conservative concerns regarding the use or misuse of the census to change the outcome of the 2012 elections. It appears that such concerns are ill-advised. While it is true that as of 2009, more people live in the city than in the country, the nation continues to be "center right" by a margin of 45% to 19%, and this disparity is a growing one favoring the conservative side of the ledger.

Adjustments to the electoral college, if anything, benefit conservatives to a slight degree. Texas, the second most populace state in the Union, ahead of New York and second behind California, will pick up 3 electoral votes. In fact, 7 of the 8 states picking up electoral votes are commonly viewed as being conservative and 8 of 9 states commonly viewed as "liberal" will lose electoral presence.

If things remain otherwise identical to the electoral results of the 2008 election, the census induced electoral changes would give the Dems 7 less votes and the GOP 7 additional votes. This change will have very little to do with Presidential election results - the only time the electoral college vote is utilized.

Likely electoral gainers:

• Texas - 3 more votes
• Arizona - 2 more votes
• Florida - 1 more vote
• Georgia - 1 more vote
• Nevada - 1 more vote
• South Carolina - 1 more vote
• Utah - 1 more vote
• Washington - 1 more vote

Likely electoral losers

• Ohio - 2 fewer votes
• Illinois - 1 fewer vote
• Iowa - 1 fewer vote
• Louisiana - 1 fewer vote
• Massachusetts - 1 fewer vote
• Michigan - 1 fewer vote
• New Jersey - 1 fewer vote
• New York - 1 fewer vote
• Pennsylvania - 1 fewer vote

In the end, the battle for Congressional dominance will be fought in the hearts and minds of the voters. Obama spent a record amount of money, much of it undisclosed, to win the "08 election by [only] 7% of the popular vote. Midknight Review believes that he has already destroyed the allegiance of those "borderline" voters that gave him his narrow [populace] victory. The popular vote totals were 69 million for and 60 million against the Democrat candidate for a total of 129 million votes in the last election. Midknight Review believes there is a 72 million conservative voter potential in the coming election -- 72 million against a total of 130 million. IF that number is accurate, Obama would lose the 2012 election with a populace vote of 72 million to 58 million and would experience one of the more one-sided defeats in American history. We see this as the present circumstance but 2012 is 3 years from now. The job market will improve and the economy will take an up-turn. This will work in Obama's favor, of course, but he will continue to score poorly on foreign policy, his assault on personal freedoms, his poor showing as regards bi-partisanship and transparency. If the dollar fails, a substantial terrorist homeland attack occurs, $140 crude oil prices return, or the New York trial of KSM and the remaining 4 terrorist is a bust - nothing that is good in the coming recovery will save Obama from an election disaster.

Source:
Commentary that of J Smithson, editor
Electoral numbers from: Brace, Kimball (2008-12-22). "New Population Estimates Show Slight Changes For 2008 Congressional Apportionment, But Point to Major Changes for 2010". ElectionDataServices. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2010582738_census24m.html. Retrieved 2008-12-25.
.
.