The day after the election, when results were still pending in many places, we went over our picks for 2018 and how they stacked up. With almost everything now settled, we thought we’d provide a final tally in the three categories where we issued race ratings, Senate, House, and governors, while also saluting some of our outside contributors:
Senate: 34 of 35 correct. The lone race we missed was Florida, where Sen.-elect Rick Scott (R) beat outgoing Sen. Bill Nelson (D) by about a tenth of a percentage point. Republicans will have a 53-47 majority starting in the new year, for a net gain of two seats. We’d also like to note that there were some questions going into the election about a couple of races, New Jersey and Tennessee, that to some looked like Toss-ups. We never rated either as such, and that decision ended up being vindicated as Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and Sen.-elect Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) both won by double digits.
House: 423 out of 434 correct. Overall, we predicted a net change of D +34, and it ended up being D +40. For the time being we’re setting aside
NC-9, where because of some apparent fraud involving absentee ballots there very well could be a new election. We favored veteran Dan McCready (D) there in our ratings over former pastor Mark Harris (R); it appeared in the immediate aftermath of the election that Harris had prevailed by about 900 votes, but those results are now very much in question. Democrats will have a 235-199 majority starting the next Congress, with NC-9 likely to be vacant at the opening of the new House. Analyst Nicholas Cohen recently published an interesting assessment of probabilistic House forecasts and found that ours performed the best in part because of our willingness to eliminate Toss-up ratings at the end of the cycle.
Governor: 32 of 35 correct. We missed Florida, Iowa, and Ohio, and we also left Georgia as a Toss-up (the lone race we didn’t call) in anticipation of a possible runoff. As it was, Gov.-elect Brian Kemp (R) won 50.2% to 48.8% over former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D), getting slightly more than 50% and thus avoiding a runoff. We had D +10 overall, and it ended up being D +7. Republicans will control 27 governorships next year to Democrats’ 23.
No comments:
Post a Comment