Will Trump be impeached? If the GOP keeps the Senate and no criminal complaints are proven, there is no chance for a successful impeachment trial.
First, impeachment is not, by itself, the removal of a president. It
is a single step in a multi-step process: The House Judiciary Committee
must recommend impeachment. Then the House of Representatives carries
out an impeachment vote. If that vote succeeds (by a simple majority), a
trial takes place in the Senate (presided over by the chief justice of
the Supreme Court), where a two-thirds majority is then required to
convict.
{Because the GOP controls both houses of congress, impeachment really is not possible until the third year of Trump's first term ~ editor]
Second, what are
the grounds for impeachment? Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution
reads, "The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the
United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and
Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors."
Has
Trump committed treason? The Constitution has a very specific
definition of treason: "levying War against [the USA], or in adhering to
their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort." Trump hasn't waged war on
the United States, and because we aren't at war with Russia, giving them
state secrets probably isn't treason either. Bribery? Not that we know
about. High crimes and misdemeanors? This is a very definite "maybe."
[In other words, there is no evidence for any criminal behavior, treason or bribery ~ editor]
"High
Crimes and Misdemeanors" was a catchall phrase, common in 18th century
British law. It didn't refer to a special kind of crime, but rather
regular crimes committed by the high and mighty – people with political
power. The framers of the Constitution made it clear that, although they
didn't want presidents to be fired every time Congress got antsy, they
did want to leave an escape hatch in case the chief resident of the
White House went bad.
What exactly qualifies as a "high crime and
misdemeanor"? Strict constitutional constructionists argue that it must
be something actually illegal, a crime for which someone could be
convicted in a court of law. Broad constructionists, instead, believe
that impeachable offenses are anything Congress thinks is unacceptable.
Or, to quote then Rep. Gerald Ford during the failed 1970 attempt to
impeach Supreme Court Justice William Douglas, "an impeachable offense
is whatever a majority of the House of Representatives considers it to
be at a given moment in history."
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Related Rolling Stone article: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/how-impeaching-trump-would-work-w482643
