What wins elections in this day and time?

 What wins elections in this day and time?  Turn out,  period.

The morning polls  I care about (which excludes all network polling efforts) has Trump up 2 points in the L.A. poll, and 2 points down in the Investers Daily Business poll.  He is 3.8 points down in the Fox News poll,  but that is better than the 7 point deficit last week,  and the 13 point deficit two weeks ago. 

Many polls have him down 5,6 7 points.  ABC had him down 12 points,  three days ago.  You should ignore any and all polls that have nothing to do with reality,  and the ABC poll is one of those polls.  What I mean is this,  reality is a presidential victory of between three and 5 points,  typically  . . . .   11, 12, 13 points are all out of the question.  These conclusions simply will not happen, and we know this because they have never happened. 

Most poll over sample Democrats versus Republicans,  and this is defended because there are more registered Dems than Republicans. 

Which is no reason to over-sample.  "Over-sampling" is a prediction regarding turn-out.  Who cares how many Dems are registered.  It is those who turn out to vote that counts.  If you believe that 28% more Democrats will vote than Republicans,  then you can believe that Trump will lose by 6 points  . . . .   such are the parameters of network polling.  But if you believe 10% more Republicans will vote versus Democrats,  you can believe that Donald will take the victory lap.  

I have friends in Seattle and Denver,  and they report the absence of Trump signage in those communities, as well. Millions of voters are pretending to be non-voters,  because of the fear factor.  Is that reflected in the polling conclusions across the nation.  Are people telling pollsters what they think the pollster wants to hear?  So do,  you know.  But more to the point,  more conservative types do not answer the phones nor participate in phone polls.  I don't.  They are voters,  but fly below the radar.  

In spite of the fact that Trump is such a clown,  he is within striking distance,  versus,  the very corrupt Mrs. Bill Clinton.  Turn out will make this election and as long as Trump keeps it close,  the opportunity for victory,  even a landslide victory,  is there. 

I live in a small California town in the Central Valley.  Very Conservative area.  No Trump signs.  Why?  Fear.  Who wants their house vandalized or car keyed?  But that is the mentality of the Democrat opposition.  They tend to violence and most normal folks  do not want to deal with the Left Wing Threat Machine.  So,  no signage   . . . .  yet we all are going to the polls and the Trump vote will not begin to mirror the lack of signage in my community.  

Now you know.