| By Geoffrey Skelley Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball |
| After months and months of endless fascination
with Iowa and New Hampshire, the bulk of the primary season will be
contested over just the course of a single month. Between Feb. 20 and
March 5, a whopping 37 states and territories will hold at least one
party’s nominating contest, many both. In order to prepare our readers
for this flood of primaries and caucuses, we wanted to take a look at
each one and try to assess what their electorates are like and what
history tells us about whom they might be inclined to support. This
week, we sketch out the Republican calendar from Feb. 20 through March
15. Next week, we’ll tackle the Democrats.
The Crystal Ball will be following the South Carolina
Republican and Nevada Democratic results on Saturday night. We will be
posting a reaction to the results on Saturday night or Sunday morning on
www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball, or look for the link on Twitter @LarrySabato, @kkondik, and @geoffreyvs. One over-arching reality has to be taken into account when considering the Republican race: Although it’s possible that Donald Trump may have a support ceiling of some kind, he has a broad base of support from an ideological and geographical perspective, unlike the other GOP candidates. If one looks at crosstabs in exit polls and horse-race surveys, it’s possible to see Trump competing for a plurality of the vote almost everywhere as long as the Republican candidate field remains crowded. Trump’s candidacy is more about personality than ideology, and that has enabled him to appeal to the many different parts of the Republican Party, regardless of whether we are focusing on different wings or groups within the party or examining geographical bases of strength for the candidates. Despite his somewhat forced religiosity, Trump garners ample support from many white evangelical Christians, who will be a majority of voters in many GOP contests, particularly in the South. Only born-again voters who prioritize issues important to the religious right over security, immigration, and the economy are less likely to back the business mogul. Trump has solid blocs of support among self-described very conservative, somewhat conservative, and moderate Republican voters, and if he isn’t winning one group, he’s often leading among the other two. Geographically, Trump can compete everywhere, from sea to shining sea. Ted Cruz may have a chance of battling for the lead in South Carolina and the rest of the religious, conservative South, but he won’t be expected to do much in Massachusetts or Vermont on March 1, and many of the states best-suited for him are front-loaded on this cycle’s calendar. John Kasich isn’t really trying to make waves in South Carolina, instead focusing his energy on states such as Michigan, which votes March 8. Plenty of polling has suggested that Marco Rubio has broad potential appeal, but his struggles in New Hampshire and the word out of his camp that Rubio would be happy with a third-place finish in the Palmetto State leave that analysis open to question. Super-establishment candidate Jeb Bush isn’t close to leading in any polling, state or national. Lastly, it’s worth noting that the delegate allocation rules in many states may boost Trump as long as the GOP field remains crowded. Many Super Tuesday states (and others) have 20% minimum thresholds that candidates must reach statewide and/or in individual congressional districts to qualify for delegates. The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog recently laid out the ramifications of such rules with Crystal Ball contributor Joshua Putnam. The long and short: If a fair number of primaries and caucuses on March 1 have results that look somewhat similar to what happened in New Hampshire, with Trump winning a solid plurality while the rest of the vote is heavily fragmented, there could be states where only Trump meets a 20% requirement. In some states, that could mean sharing delegates with the second-place finisher (statewide and/or in districts); in others, it could give him a “backdoor winner-take-all” victory, enabling him to win all or most delegates from a state with only a plurality. With these circumstances in mind, here’s our look at the upcoming Republican contests. So far, only Iowa and New Hampshire have voted. After March 15’s primaries have concluded, 36 states and territories will have voted on the Republican side, and close to 60% of all GOP national delegates will have been awarded. -- The Editors |
No comments:
Post a Comment