A real time predictive analysis of the 2016 election:

Here is the key to the 2016, or, at least,  the most significant key:  If Trump wins the GOP nomination, he will not win Ohio and I am confident of that because he has turned John Kasich,  the governor,  into a major Trump hater.

Hillary's problem may be even more of an issue,  however,  and that is a little thing called "turnout."  Obama, in 2012,  lost 4.5 million votes compared to 2008 numbers, but won the election with 51% of the national vote.  I mention this because Hillary is not Barack Obama.  If Barack,  personally,  counts for anything,  it is at least 5 points in each of the last two elections.  If true,  and just ask Obama if I am not correct,  Hillary loses both elections. 



No one in the GOP has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio,  BUT, that does not mean that victory is impossible without Ohio.  If Hillary comes in with 47% of the national vote,  all bets are off against a Trump Victory. 

Trump is winning,  at present,  with the vote of the Confederate Right  (ex Democrat southerners) who represent around 15% of the GOP  and often do not vote at all,  and,  Cruz is strong with the the hard Right evangelicals who represent a strong 20% of the Party.  He will not inherit much of the Trump vote,  simply because these people are haters who usually do not vote.  Many will take their ball and go home if Trump does not win the nomination,  or if he jumps ship   . . b. . .   a losing circumstance for the GOP.  If he stays in,  whether he is the nominee or not,  Hillary will not win in 2016  . . .   period.  

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