Table 1: 2016 Crystal Ball Republican presidential rankings
| First Tier: The Nominal Frontrunner | |||
| Candidate | Key Primary Advantages | Key Primary Disadvantages | |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Jeb Bush Ex-Governor, FL | •Strong gubernatorial resume •Potential Hispanic appeal •Early moves toward running might dissuade other establishment candidates from entering race •National Bush money and organization | •Wrong last name (Bush dynasty) •Offshore private equity funds could be political headache •Party has moved to the right |
| Second Tier: The Other Big Boys | |||
 | Rand Paul Senator, KY | •Working hard, reaching out to diverse audience •Most successful and prominent early campaign •Strong support from libertarian and Tea Party wings •National ID and fundraising network; benefits from father’s previous efforts | •Too dovish/eclectic for GOP tastes? Party leaders likely to prefer someone else •Association with out-of-mainstream father •Would be unconventional nomination winner |
 | Scott Walker Governor, WI | •Heroic conservative credentials •Checks boxes for many wings of party •If GOP doesn’t go South, it could go Midwest | •Too bland? Next Pawlenty? •Do lingering scandals hurt him? •Not a polished speaker •Does lack of college degree matter? |
 | Chris ChristieGovernor, NJ | •Dynamic speaker •The more Democrats and media criticize him, the more acceptable he becomes to GOP base •Establishment favorite | •Bridge scandal still playing out •Bullying and out-of-control-staff questions •Not conservative enough for base •Roots for the Dallas Cowboys |
| Third Tier: The Outsiders | |||
 | Ted Cruz Senator, TX | •Dynamic speaker and politician •Diversity + conservatism •Anti-establishment nature plays well with base | •Too extreme? •Disliked on both sides of the Senate aisle •Strong Tea Party support ensures establishment resistance to candidacy |
 | Mike Huckabee Ex-Governor, AR | •Already vetted •Blue collar appeal •Strong support from social conservatives •Southerner in Southern-based party | •Disliked by establishment for economic populism, social views -- party leaders don’t think he’s electable •Small fundraising base •Social conservatives have many other options |
 | Ben CarsonNeurosurgeon and activist | •Adored by Tea Party grassroots •Diversity + conservatism •Good on TV | •No political experience whatsoever •Gaffe-prone •Little chance of establishment backing and funding |
| Fourth Tier: Establishment Alternatives | |||
 | Mitt Romney Ex-Governor, MA; ’12 GOP presidential nominee | •The ultimate fallback candidate: If party’s falling apart, it’s Mitt to the rescue •Extremely well-vetted | •Been around the track so often he’s muddy •Poor campaign in ’12 -- same lack of enthusiasm from base •Bush-Christie runs would probably crowd him out |
 | Marco Rubio Senator, FL | •Dynamic speaker and politician •Diversity + conservatism •Short time in Senate, which Obama proved could be a plus | •Did his national star peak too soon? •Went left on immigration, hurt him with base •Bush run could push him out |
 | John Kasich Governor, OH | •Long conservative record •If GOP doesn’t go South, it could go Midwest •Could be fallback for GOP establishment forces | •Supported Medicaid expansion •Makes verbal miscues, lots of video from time as Fox host •Nobody’s first (or even second) choice |
 | Rick Snyder Governor, MI | •Right to Work in major labor state •If GOP doesn’t go South, it could go Midwest •Washington outsider | •Supported Medicaid expansion •Activists have more exciting options •Washington outsider (not high on establishment lists) |
| Fifth Tier: The Remainders | |||
 | Bobby Jindal Governor, LA | •Diversity + conservatism •Southerner in Southern-based party •Deep and wide experience •Knows how to toss red meat to base | •Better on paper than on stump •Controversial tenure in Louisiana •His star has been brighter in the past; hasn’t yet lived up to national potential |
 | Rick Perry Governor, TX | •Showing clear improvement as a candidate -- “second chance” mentality •Running vigorously and has strong campaign team •Texas fundraising •Indictment? Could rally right if vindicated | •Indictment •Yesterday’s Texan? Has Ted Cruz eclipsed him? •“Oops,” we forgot the rest; hard to make a second first impression |
 | Rick Santorum Ex-Senator, PA | •Strong support from social conservatives •2nd place finisher in ’12 -- next in line? •Been around primary track | •Harder to stand out in much stronger ‘16 field •Lost last Senate race by 17% •Chip-on-shoulder attitude •Social conservatives have flashier options |
| Sixth Tier: The Wild Cards | |||
 | Mike PenceGovernor, IN | •Extensive governing experience •Excites conservatives, particularly social conservatives •If GOP doesn’t go South, it could go Midwest | •Low name ID nationally •Would have to give up governorship to run |
 | Carly Fiorina Former business executive | •The only woman in the field •Very wealthy, could self-fund •Might be able to convince a few people she could compete in blue states | •Lost only race (2010 Senate) badly •Probably too moderate •Largely unknown, no base of support |
 | Lindsey Graham Senator, SC | •Prominent Obama critic •Generally liked by party leaders/establishment •Media savvy | •Vehemently disliked by grassroots •Immigration reform efforts hurt him with conservatives •Would be crowded out by other establishment candidates |
 | John Bolton Ex-Ambassador to the United Nations | •Foreign policy hardliner and expertise •Media savvy | •Relatively unknown •No electoral experience, tough to see him putting together campaign infrastructure •More gadfly than candidate |
| Seventh Tier: Newt Gingrich Society -- “Want to buy a book?” | |||
 | Peter KingRepresentative, NY | •Foreign policy hardliner and expertise •Media savvy | •Probably not conservative enough •Small base of support (candidates from House rarely win) •“Pete Who?” |
 | George Pataki Ex-Governor, NY | •Few enemies because no one remembers him •Potential Wall Street fundraising base •Very long elective experience | •Time has passed him by: “George Who?” •Zero grassroots excitement |
 | Bob Ehrlich Ex-Governor, MD | •**Crickets** -- e-mail us if you can think of one | •Lost twice to...Martin O’Malley •Time has passed him by: “Bob Who?” •No grassroots support |
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