Senate break down: GOP could win 7 seats or more. Here is the background for that prediction with 37 days to go.

This report leans heavily on RealClearPolitics polling averages and FiveThirtyEight.

Michigan Senate race:  Five Thirty Eight, the data-driven website founded by East Lansing native Nate Silver, predicts Republicans will gain control of the Senate but favors democrat Peters over Secretary of State,  Terri Land.   Real Clear Politics, which averages recent poll results, pegs Peters’ lead at 4.7 points , up from 3.8 100 days ago.   This is the seat vacated by the socialist,  Carl Levin.  Turnout could put this in the GOP camp,  but turnout appears to be necessary for that to happen. 

Kansas:  45% chance to win for the Democrats.  Race is a toss up or leans slightly to the Right.   

*West Virginia:  Shelly Capito - polls show this Establishment Republican  solidly in the lead in this race for retiring Jay Rockefellow’s seat.

*Georgia:  David Perdue (GOP) has moved into the polling lead against Michelle Nunn. 

*Iowa:  Jone Ernst (GOP) has taken the polling lead against Bruce Braley and seems to be gaining momentum. 

*Alaska: Dan Sullivan (GOP) has taken a surprising lead (4.7 RealClear) against the incumbent Democrat. 

*Arkansas:  Tom Cotton (GOP) has taken a 3.6% polling lead in this race. 

North Carolina:  Key Hagan (Democrat) has taken a 3.5 % lead in this race.  Turnout could win this race for the GOP but,  as things stand today,  Hagan is in a good position to win. 

Colorado:  This race is a polling toss up – a tie,  at the moment. 

New Hampshire:  Scott Brown is gaining ground,  but is polling behind the Democrat incumbent. 

Louisiana:  Mary Landrieu appears to be in serious trouble.  I want to “star” this race,  but if her GOP opponent,  up by 5points, does not win a 50% majority on November 4,  there will be a runoff in December.  You can expect the Dems to throw every penny they can collect,  if that runoff is necessary. 

*Montana:  The GOP challenger is a 19 pt favorite. 


*North Dakota:  Rounds (GOP) is a 15 pt favorites at this time.  

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