Before you go ballistic,
go to AEI and read the authors justification. Understand that a candidate needs 270
electoral votes to win election.
Romney 338, Obama 200?
Map created using Neil Stevens's "Swingometer"
From AEI: A few weeks ago, I posted a somewhat controversial electoral
prediction: Romney 322, Obama 216. For those who don’t want to click
through and read the whole piece, here’s the key point and map:
In 2010, the popular vote for the House was 52% to 45%
Republican. Compared to 2008, Democrats lost eight points and Republicans
gained six, for a combined “swing” of 14 points. So if we want to get a good
prediction of what the electoral college map will look like in 2012, we just
need to shift each individual state’s vote by about 14 points.
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