Here is the story's opening thoughts:
President Obama did not receive a significant bump in support against a generic Republican opponent following the killing of Osama bin Laden, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
Despite a seven-point boost to a 54 percent approval rating in the latest Gallup poll, Obama leads an unnamed Republican 43-40 percent. That is virtually unchanged from April 20-22, when he and the generic Republican were tied at 41 percent (the two-point jump for Obama falls within the margin of error).
The poll underscores a point being made by political observers: The slaying of bin Laden, one of the world's most wanted men since the 9/11 attacks, hardly guarantees Obama's reelection in 2012.
The facts in question? Well, it was a 7 point "bounce," alright, but Gallup jumped Obama from 44% before the Osama killing to 51% (not 54%) in the days immediately following the shooting. Like I said, "No big deal." The problem is this, however: are Mr. Fabian's other numbers correct?Without doing any research of his own, Fabian blindly quotes (or is this a misquote) Gallup here: Gallup said the divide on Obama's poll numbers could be because the president's climbing approval rating is being driven by Republicans, who still would vote against Obama next year: Republicans' approval of the president jumped 11 points between late April and now, the highest among any political group.
The suggestion, of course, is that Obama has won over a fairly significant segment of Republicans and is poised -- because of this -- to win re-election. The problem with this conclusion is this: the 11 point "swing" in Obama's favor has nothing to do with his function as president. Rather, it reflects the conservative "11%" and their pleasure with the killing of bin Laden. That's it. The 60 million who voted against Obama in 2008 will vote against him in 2012; of that there is little doubt. The 5 million conservatives who despised McCain despite being love with Sarah Palin and did not vote in the presidential election, will vote in 2012. Add to this the fact that Obama has lost ground in every voting demographic including Blacks (down 5%), Academia (down 15%) and Hispanics (down 17 points). If he cannot recapture those whom he has lost, he will lose by a landslide. Right now, as things stand today, Obama would suffer one of the more humiliating election defeats in modern history, perhaps worse than the beating Jimmy Carter received from Ronald Reagan.
Why do you think Obama is in full campaign mode, right now? And do not worry about the billion dollars the man is going to raise for this election. He raised nearly the same amount the first time. Spent money will not get him elected, but hundreds of broken promises will send him down the tubes.
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