No one believes the new 9 % unemployment report. We have the explanation.

Unemployment dropped to 9.0 % but the economy added only 36,000 jobs. These two government generated numbers evidence a disconnect of sorts. They just do not compliment each other. Gallup runs newly unemployed numbers and they have newly unemployed on a straight line at 9.9% (click here for those results). Understand that the Gallup total comes from a phone survey. So do the DoL statistics !! And you thought someone was counting heads. Ha !! Fool. What if the DoL made their phone calls to the DC area, where unemployment totals have been aprox 5.6% throughout the recession? Just sayin'.

Of course, Obama will make a big deal of the government's numbers. It is important to know that the economy needs to create 120,000 jobs each and every month just to keep up with population growth. With today's revelations, we are being led to believe that unemployment went down during the same month we lost another 84,000 jobs to the growing work force ???? Adding to the confusion are these words from the Department of Labor's most recent report: The number of unemployed persons decreased by about 600,000 in January to 13.9 million, while the labor force was unchanged. . . . . . Something is wrong.

We have a partial explanation.

What is commonly called "the unemployment number" is, in reality, a measure of the first time unemployed making application for benefits. It's so much easier to say "unemployment number," isn't it?

We believe the lower totals are the result of two factors: tom-foolery and folks who have given up on their individual job search. It is not because folks are going back to work, in mass.

The LA Times confirms our point with these words, this morning: Only 36,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in January, the federal unemployment report says, apparently reflecting a reluctance to hire. Unemployment fell to 9%, in part because more people have given up on the job market.

The Libs have it right !! Look, if you have given up on your job search or are no longer eligible to receive benefits, you drop off the so-called "unemployment" rolls and the president brags that things are improving because the "unemployment number" went down.

To add to the problem, FoxNews is reporting this morning (Friday 2/4/2011) that a quarter of a million folks dropped out of the work force altogether.

Economist in the know, predicted an upturn in the so-called unemployment percentage to 9.5%. They, apparently, got that wrong. Nearly every article we have reviewed this morning registers "surprise" with both numbers. In fact, there is a substantial amount of skepticism as relates to the morning's report -- skepticism from all quarters. Understand that two months ago, November, the "unemployment" rate was 9.8% . Today, it supposedly stands at 9.0%, nearly a full point down in 8 weeks. Normally, this sharp decline in "unemployment" numbers would represent at least 3.4 millions jobs, created. Think about it. We moved from 7.6% unemployment at the beginning of Obama's term to a high of 10.1% . That history represents the loss of 8.8 million jobs (FoxBusinessNews), but only 1.3 million jobs have been added back into the economy as of the end of 2010. "1.3 million" instead of [our total of] 3.4 million. Again, something is wrong.

Over all and in spite of confusing reports from "official" camps, the economy continues to show improvement, slowly. Manufacturing and retail sales along with health services are adding jobs while construction, transportation and warehousing all took hits in the monthly report.

Point of post: until we can get away from the partisan need to "create or save" improving employment numbers, expect to see continued confusion in these reports.

As an aside but related note, we have reported a level year for GDP in 2009 and 1.9% growth in GDP for 2010. The government is reporting more than 2% growth in each of those years. Perhaps it would benefit the reader to check this out with our in-house search engine in the right hand column. The point of the aside is this: confusion is the name of the game when it comes to government reporting.

End notes:

Labor Force Participation Plunges To Fresh 26 Year Low

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/04/2011

At 64.2%, the labor force participation rate (as a percentage of the total civilian noninstitutional population) is now at a fresh 26 year low, the lowest since March 1984, and is the only reason why the unemployment rate dropped to 9% (labor force declined from 153,690 to 153,186). Those not in the Labor Force has increased from 83.9 million to 86.2 million, or 2.2 million in one year! As for the numerator in the fraction, the number of unemployed, it has plunged from 15 million to 13.9 million in two months! The only reason for this is due to the increasing disenchantment of those who completely fall off the BLS rolls and no longer even try to look for a job. Lastly, we won't even show what the labor force is as a percentage of total population. It is a vertical plunge.