Monmouth University did a survey two weeks ago in which they posted a 19 point lead for Chris Coons over Christine O'Donnell. She has been running behind by double digits for weeks and has showed no sign of rescuing her candidacy for Senator out of Delaware. The GOP has given her little help and Marxist Misfits such as Bill "I'm so funny" Mahar have described her in the lowest of terms.
For conservative pundits such as this editor, the O'Donnell candidacy looked manifestly hopeless except for one little thing: Obama has scheduled his third visit to Delaware, Biden has been there twice and Pelosi has made a visit. Understand that this election is "in the bag."
So why all the attention?
Today, we were given a little insight into what is really going on.
The Monmouth poll report released this morning, shows O'Donnell closing fast, from 19 two weeks ago to a 10 point deficit today or 51% for Coons to 41% for the Republican. To make matters worse (for the Dems) is the fact that she has a solid lead of 49% to 43% in the south state (Kent and Sussex counties). More than this, Independents are breaking for O'Donnell 45% to 42% for the first time during the campaign.
Understand that there are two factors in addition to actual polling numbers: trends and turnouts.
The general polling wisdom has "turnout demographics" set at 56% to 38% in favor of the GOP. We are talking about turnout percentages of the total partisan vote. On average, this means that a Republican running behind but within the "margin of error" would win a typical race.
And here is more disturbing news for the Dems: women who went with the Obama/Dems by 8% in 2008 now are polling at 20% for the GOP. 6% of Blacks will sit this election out because of disappointment. 23% of Hispanics believe that Obama did not keep his promise of comprehensive immigration reform, something he could have delivered without GOP cooperation at all, kind of like what he did with ObamaCare. Ditto for Don't Ask, Don't Tell. Instead of keeping promises when he could not be refused, he wasted his political capitol on on a bill that is sill not fully written.
Point of post: we know it is too much to hope for but Christine is closing in or Coons, just as she did during the GOP primaries. Obama and company know full well that O'Donnell was 21 points behind in the GOP primary and yet she won running away from the GOP Establishment candidate.
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