In a generic ballot, unnamed Democrat versus unnamed Republican, Republicans have the lead 48 to 44. Sounds close.
But, when the generic ballot is figured against a 50% to 60% registered voter turnout, the totals are 43 for the Dems and 52% of the vote for the Republicans.
If the turnout comes in at 40% of registered voters, which is the more likely number, the totals get even worse for the Dems: 41 Dem to 55 for the GOP.
These numbers come from Gallup and are considered "very accurate" in terms of an election predictor.
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