Andrew Kohut is the president of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. He is the co-author of four books and a frequent commentator on polls for National Public Radio.
The findings of the New York Times/CBS News Poll of Tea Party supporters augur well for the Republicans in November’s midterm elections: the politically energized supra conservatives — the 1 in 5 who are universally disaffected with national conditions, and with Barack Obama and with his policies — are likely to be a strong advantage in the midterms, where typically fewer than 4 of 10 eligible citizens vote.
The so-called radical center may help the G.O.P. this year, but if the party moves rightward, it risks losing independents.
The boost Tea Party supporters give Republican candidates may be especially decisive this year given how politically asleep the Democrats appear. In every poll the latter register as far less enthusiastic about voting than do Republicans generally, not to mention Tea Party adherents.
So if you are a Republican, what’s not to like about the Tea Party movement? From this vantage point, a number risks seem possible, if not probable.
First, the Tea Party movement could move the Republican Party further to the right, particularly, if they come to be seen as central to a G.O.P. victory in November. This rightward shift may not bode well for the party in the longer run, given the new primacy of independent voters, a power that was on full display in 2008. And since then we have seen the price Obama has paid in being seen as too far to the left to suit the tastes of centrist independents.
Second, not only is there a risk that the Tea Party movement will become the tail that wags the dog; there is some risk that it will become the dog itself. A soon-to-be-released Pew Research Center poll will show that a sizable number of Republicans say that the Tea Party better matches their political views right now than does the G.O.P. itself. Looking ahead, our polling suggests that the Republican party needs unifying themes and leadership. A Tea Party-led G.O.P. may not be the prescription for that.
Third, the Tea Party might be a flash in the pan. It’s now riding a wave of distrust in government and backlash against Obama in a bad economy. If and when the economy recovers and Obama with it, they might not be the potent force they appear to be today, and not a G.O.P. asset.
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