Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?
— There's no point in
putting it gently: Mitt Romney had one of his worst polling days of the year on
Wednesday. — It began with a series of polls from The New York
Times, CBS News and Quinnipiac University, released early Wednesday morning . . . . . . .
Outlets picking up this storyline include: The Atlantic Online, The Fix, AMERICAblog, Donklephant, New York Timesand Booman
Tribune
******
First of all, the
actual “name” of this poll is “Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times
Swing State poll” and can be found, here. Understand that the first order of the day, when it comes to analyzing polling information, is to determine the degree of bias. You begin with those who commissioned the poll. In this case, it was CBS and The New York Times. They commissioned the poll and issued directives as to the specific information requested. No doubt Quinnipiac formulated the actual question(s) to meet its standards. CBS and the Times are fully Leftist, One World, socialist entities. Their polling mandates support this cause in nearly every case.
Secondly, if the poll does not indicate the Democrat/GOP split, and this poll does not, you can turn to to any internal polling information containing comparative favorability ratings, if listed. This poll compares the favorability of the GOP against the Democrat. Clearly, this is a Left leaning survey, with a strong bias against the GOP.
A Left Leaning bias is clearly demonstrated in the following three categories.
1. GOP favorability :
LIKELY VOTERS...
FL OH PA
Favorable 38% 37% 37%
Unfavorable 50 49 51
2. Democrat favorability
LIKELY VOTERS...
FL OH PA
Favorable 49% 48% 50%
Unfavorable 43 40 40
3. Bill Clinton’s favorability rating
LIKELY VOTERS...
FL OH PA
Favorable 68% 66% 67%
Unfavorable 28 30 27
Now, here is the kicker: while this poll makes the claim that it is talking to "likely voters," not just "registered voters," close to 16% on average are less enthusiastic than in 2008. It is my opinion, that a high percentage of this demographic will not vote in 2012.
Enthusiasm for this election cycle:
LIKELY VOTERS...
FL OH PA
More 47% 35% 32%
Less 14 17 18
About the same 39 48 50
DK/NA - 1 -
Side bar:
99% of the people interviewed had a government issued
picture ID. So how difficult is
this and why has not the Congressional Black Caucus not been called out for its lies in this regard.
_______________________
The Polling Institute can be contacted at
203-582-5201 or pollinginstitute@quinnipiac.edu.
NATE SILVER was RIGHT
ReplyDeleteSMITHSON was wrong.
That is a atter of FACT.