Nate Silver believes a partisan poll is "bad news" for Romney. Me? I believe partisan polling results are expected, and not news at all.

Nate Silver / FiveThirtyEight:
Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?  —  There's no point in putting it gently: Mitt Romney had one of his worst polling days of the year on Wednesday.  —  It began with a series of polls from The New York Times, CBS News and Quinnipiac University, released early Wednesday morning . . . . . . . 
Outlets picking up this storyline include:   The Atlantic OnlineThe FixAMERICAblogDonklephantNew York Timesand Booman Tribune
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First of all,  the actual “name” of this poll is “Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times Swing State poll”  and can be found,  here.  Understand that the first order of the day,  when it comes to analyzing polling information, is to determine the degree of bias.   You begin with those who commissioned the poll.  In this  case,  it was CBS and The New York Times.  They commissioned the poll and issued directives as to the specific information requested.  No doubt Quinnipiac formulated the actual question(s) to meet its standards.   CBS and the Times are fully Leftist, One World,  socialist entities.  Their polling mandates support this cause in nearly every case.

Secondly,  if the poll does not indicate the Democrat/GOP split,  and this poll does not,  you can turn to to any internal polling information containing comparative favorability ratings,  if listed.  This poll compares the favorability of the GOP against the Democrat.  Clearly,  this is a Left leaning survey,  with a strong bias against the GOP.  

A Left Leaning bias is clearly demonstrated in the following three categories.

1.  GOP favorability :
  LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     PA
Favorable            38%    37%    37%
Unfavorable          50     49     51
 
2. Democrat favorability
 
LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     PA
Favorable            49%    48%    50%
Unfavorable          43     40     40

 
3.  Bill Clinton’s favorability rating
      LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     PA 
Favorable            68%    66%    67%
Unfavorable          28     30     27

 Now,  here is the kicker:  while this poll makes the claim that it is talking to "likely voters,"  not just "registered voters,"  close to 16% on average are less enthusiastic than in 2008.  It is my opinion,  that a high percentage of this demographic will not vote in 2012.  

Enthusiasm for this election cycle:
        LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     PA 
More                 47%    35%    32%
Less                 14     17     18
About the same       39     48     50
DK/NA                 -      1      -


Side bar:  
99% of the people interviewed had a government issued picture ID.  So how difficult is this and why has not the Congressional Black Caucus not been called out for its lies in this regard.  

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 The Polling Institute can be contacted at 203-582-5201 or pollinginstitute@quinnipiac.edu.

1 comment:

  1. NATE SILVER was RIGHT
    SMITHSON was wrong.

    That is a atter of FACT.

    ReplyDelete