The TIPP's poll, one that is not used much but is a
solid polling firm, has Romney down by two points, overall,
46% to 44% on the strength of Obama's popularity in the Northeast and
with the 18 - 44 age group.
As to the gender vote, men turn out in greater numbers
than women, typically.
As to race, TIPP's has Obama at 80%, which is
where Obama wants to be but he is at 37% with white's three points below his
game day strategy. His campaign believes that if he gets 80% of the
ethnic vote and 40% of the white vote, he wins.
With all this, we have a conundrum: Obama is up by two, but loses the election per his formula for winning. Go figure.
With all this, we have a conundrum: Obama is up by two, but loses the election per his formula for winning. Go figure.
In the end, this election will be determined by
"turn-out" and Romney has the edge in this demographic. Source: TIPPs Online.
| Category | Obama | Romney | Not sure | Refused |
| Overall | 46% | 44% | 8% | 2% |
| Region | ||||
| Northeast | 53% | 35% | 9% | 2% |
| Midwest | 49% | 42% | 8% | 1% |
| South | 39% | 51% | 8% | 2% |
| West | 45% | 43% | 8% | 4% |
| Age | ||||
| 18-44 | 49% | 39% | 9% | 3% |
| 45-64 | 45% | 47% | 6% | 2% |
| 65+ | 41% | 47% | 9% | 3% |
| Gender | ||||
| Male | 40% | 48% | 10% | 2% |
| Female | 51% | 40% | 6% | 2% |
| Race | ||||
| White | 37% | 52% | 8% | 2% |
| Black/Hispanic | 80% | 12% | 4% | 4% |
| Income | ||||
| Under 30K | 50% | 36% | 7% | 6% |
| 30K-50K | 47% | 43% | 10% | 0% |
| 50-75K | 41% | 48% | 9% | 1% |
| 75K+ | 47% | 47% | 5% | 1% |
| Party | ||||
| Democrats | 85% | 9% | 3% | 3% |
| Republicans | 6% | 88% | 4% | 2% |
| Ind./Other | 41% | 41% | 17% | 1% |
| Investor Class | ||||
| Yes | 44% | 48% | 6% | 2% |
| No | 47% | 40% | 10% | 3% |
| Area Type | ||||
| Urban | 61% | 29% | 10% | 0% |
| Suburban | 48% | 40% | 9% | 4% |
| Rural | 34% | 58% | 6% | 2% |
| White | ||||
| White men | 30% | 57% | 12% | 1% |
| White women | 44% | 48% | 5% | 2% |
| Black/Hispanic | ||||
| Black | 88% | 6% | 2% | 4% |
| Hispanic | 62% | 27% | 8% | 4% |
| Women | ||||
| Single women | 57% | 30% | 10% | 4% |
| Married women | 45% | 50% | 4% | 1% |
| Education | ||||
| High School | 51% | 39% | 8% | 2% |
| Some College | 33% | 52% | 11% | 4% |
| College Degree or more | 50% | 42% | 6% | 2% |
| Ideology | ||||
| Conservative | 21% | 70% | 7% | 3% |
| Moderate | 56% | 34% | 8% | 1% |
| Liberal | 88% | 3% | 9% | 1% |
| Household Description | ||||
| Upper/Upper Middle | 38% | 53% | 6% | 3% |
| Middle | 47% | 44% | 7% | 1% |
| Working | 42% | 46% | 9% | 2% |
| Lower | 54% | 28% | 11% | 8% |
| Religion | ||||
| Protestant | 36% | 55% | 6% | 3% |
| Catholic | 46% | 44% | 7% | 2% |
| Other Christian | 43% | 47% | 8% | 3% |
| Jewish | 59% | 35% | 6% | 0% |
| Other | 38% | 47% | 15% | 0% |
| None | 73% | 17% | 8% | 2% |
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