As things stand, demographically, at this moment - Obama is not even close. Here's the math.

2008:  Obama spend an estimated 800 million dollars and won the election by only 7% of the popular vote. 


Party Demographics in that election:   Democrats - 35.5% of population ; GOP - 34.0% of population




2011 (now):   


Party Demographics :  Democrat membership -  32.7%  ;   GOP - 35.4% of population.  


Unless the truly Independent comes back to Obama,  this election will be a landslide. 


More importantly,  it looks like the GOP wins,  even if a third party candidate splits off.