New benefit claims for last week came in at 388,000, down 5,000 from week before. Good news? Maybe, but . . . . . . . . .

Original Commentary by J Smithson

What do these numbers have in common: 397,000, 393,000, and 388,000 (unadjusted) ? They

show a 7 month low for any three week reporting period. All charts reviewing this information, show a definite downward trend. That is the good news. We need to see consistent reporting at 370,000 to 375,000 in new claims. At that point, as near as I can figure as a layman reporter, new job creation and "rehirings" equal out and begin to lower the number of folks who are unemployed. That number is 17 to 19 million Americans.

The caveat to all this goodness is this: "tis the season to be jolly." And, the holiday season, with its temporary jobs demand, may have more to do with these numbers than any of us care to admit. We may have to wait until the January/February reports before we know exactly where we are, and, how much of a campaign issue it will be. Merry Christmas.